If the national and state economies are doing so well, why does it feel like we are still floundering? More importantly to most people, why is there still so much anxiety permeating the air?

According to the way things are supposed to work, when an economy improves, job growth resumes, many of those who lost their jobs during the “hard times” find employment once again, and, as this occurs, the state’s budget picture straightens out, usually producing some pleasant surprises in terms of smaller-than-expected shortfalls. Not in this recovery! While jobs are being created, almost as many are being lost. And, in today’s economy, the lost jobs are often permanently eliminated, so that when economic growth accelerates, there is no job to return to.  And, if that’s not bad (and uncertain) enough, Rhode Island is moving directly into a major budget crisis – a projected $190 million deficit for the next fiscal year! It seems that the budget surprises are almost always negative, not positive.

In this environment, it is not difficult to see why anxiety is running so high. The “old” recovery patterns appear to have vanished, people aren’t sure if the sunny economic statistics will continue. And, if all of that isn’t bad enough, the budget shortfall Rhode Island must deal with will slow its rate growth, offsetting some if not a substantial portion of the “cyclical” momentum we will experience, likely cutting into consumer confidence.

So, with a recovery like this, who needs a recession? On average, we are doing well. But looking inside of the averages, economic activity remains highly uneven. This reminds me of the old saying about the person who drowned crossing a river with an average depth of 3 feet.